By this time you are probably aware that Scotish born, British by heart Andy Murray finally won his first Grand Slam final. Many are talking about the end of the 76 year dry spell of Brits without a Slam, but I think we should be talking about the beginning of a new era in tennis.
About ten years ago, we lived a very similar scenario: the likes of Sampras, Agassi, Rafter and Becker had been dominating Grand Slams and #1 spots in the world. Then Sampras and Agassi turned 30, Becker retired, Rafter was dwelled with back and shoulder injuries... and all of this results in new names being written in the most prestigous trophies of our sport. Players who hadn't been able or weren't capable of translating their talent into victories, due to the dominance of Pete, Andre, Pat and Boris, all of a sudden began materializing their chances and winning the big titles. Goran Ivanisevic must have lost like 10 matches at later stages (semi finals, finals); Juan Carlos Ferrero was prevented a Roland Garros twice by the master Guga Kuerten and once by his teacher Albert Costa. Then you also have to add the newcomers, the new school from the new generation: fresher legs, fiercy eyes and a very very hungry stomach. Safin, Hewitt, Roddick, all of them capitalizing their chances. Then came Roger Federer and put an end to it, followed by Rafael Nadal: between the two of them, 28 Grand Slams were monopolized. Novak Djokovic became the third musketeer in the group and added 6 more. Only the loner Marat Safin (Australia 2005) and Juan Martin del Potro (US Open 2009) were able to make a brief appearance as Grand Slam champions. Interestingly enough, both of them had to face and beat Federer in five sets to do so.
So here we are, at the end of 2012. Novak began the year as #1 player and he won the Australian Open; Nadal reached Roland Garros as #2 and he won Roland Garros. Federer ranked #3 in the world conquered Wimbledon and yesterday the fourth player in the world Andy Murray grabbed his first US Open crown. Each one of the top four players won a Slam. The question now is: Which player dominated 2012?
Let's see if we can answer:
Novak: Began 2012 as he ended 2011 -meaning, looking unbeatable-. He downed Nadal in one of the best matches of all time. But as the season went on, he began to deflate. Perhaps the pressure of defending that godlike 2011 got the best out of him. He managed to make Roland Garros finals, but couldn't handle Nadal. He lost in the Wimbledon semis to eventual champion Federer and yesterday he fell short in the finals. On a normal standard, one could say 2012 was a good year for Djoker. Compared to 2011, it wasn't.
Rafael: Began 2012 as he ended 2011 -meaning, trying to find a way how to beat Novak-. He lost the Australian, but came on top at Roland Garros, also mastering another successful clay-court season. After surrendering a second round loss to an unkown qualifier, he pulled out the rest of the season citing a recurring knee injury. On a normal standard, one could say 2012 was a good year for Nadal. Unfortunately we didn't get the chance to see what would he have accomplished, had he played the rest of the season.
Roger: Began 2012 looking like Pete Sampras ten years ago in 2002 -meaning, looking as if he was ready to retire, but maybe struggling to win one more slam-. He kept losing to Nadal and Djokovic in straight sets, including an astounding pound 6-3/6-1 in Miami against Nadal and a 3-0 Djokoic rollover in Roland Garros. Many doubted he would win another slam, yet alone get back to the #1 spot. With Wimbledon's victory he did both. After losing in the finals of the Olympics to Murray ,he moved on to a quite successful summer season, until he ran into one of the underdogs who believe can beat him Tomas Berdych. On a normal standard, 2012 looks like a good year for Roger. On Roger's standards, well... it's not
Andy: Began 2012 pretty much the same way he began past seasons -meaning living under the shadow of the top #3-. Once again he cried after losing his fourth Grand Slam final in Wimbledon. Then everything finally came together for him at the Olympics. And at the US Open. By ANY standards, 2012 has been a great year for Andy. But has he been a dominant player this season? The answer is no.
The way I see it, 2012 has earned to be called a transition year, pretty much like 2001, 2002. Perhaps to a lesser degree because both Novak and Rafa were able to defend their 2011 titles in Australia and Paris. However here we are, ready to enter October and unsure of a clear dominant player -even with Rafa out for the rest of the year-.
There are three master 1000 tournaments left, including the End year World Championship, all of them played in a surface that favors Roger. The thing is that aged 31, Roger is looking a bit slower with every passing match and there is no denying that thils will continue. He still has the game to beat anyone outside the top 10, but when it comes to Novak, Andy, Tomas, Juan Martin, the advantage is reduced.
Then we have Rafa, who at 26 is looking less healthier than Roger at 31. This is the second time in three years that Nadal has to pull out for the rest of the season. Will he be back? Of course he will, but like Roger, there is no denying that his pace must be tuned down unless he is aiming to retire from the sport in 2014.
If 2012 did anything to Novak is that it proved him as unable to handle the pressure of being #1. Like it or not, he wasn't able to repeat his 2011 success. Yesterday's was a strategic match more than a tennis match, yet he wasn't able to capitalize on having the conditions turn to his favor. To me, Novak's 2012 looks quite similar to Connors' 1975 and Wilander's 1989 (both years following 3 Grand Slam trophy seasons). So for Novak one has to think: Is he tired? Or is he happy with winning one slam a year and making it to the semis/finals of the others?
Finally we have the new generation, pioneered by Andy, today a US Open champion and Gold medal holder. Will he fill the hole of an aging Roger, an injured Rafa and a questionable Novak in the years to come? Only time will tell... but a big warning for the rest of the players is the fact that Ivan Lendl is behind him, who went on to dominate the second half of the 80s after Borg, McEnroe and Connors faded away. Also there is Berdych and Del Potro, my two other favorite new-gen players who have been deprived of Grand Slam victories over and over again. In the horizon, no one else appears to look like a worthy Grand Slam Champion.
A new tennis era has begun yeterday and Andy Murray's victory unveiled it. Who will be the next McEnroe, Sampras, Federer, Nadal? Is he already out there or is he still playing 14 and under tournaments? Time will tell. One thing is for sure: it doesn't look like it's in the US or in Sweden, as Americans couldn't make it past the quarterfinals, and in an ashtoning fact, there were no swedes in the men's singles main draw of the open.
Winds of change are coming in tennis.
